nevadanewsandviews.com · Jim Hartman · September 8, 2026
Lombardo's Advantage in the Race for Nevada Governor - Nevada News and Views
# Lombardo’s Advantage in the Race for Nevada Governor
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Jim Hartman September 8, 2026
With Early Voting in the general election starting in less than two months, recent analyses show Republican Joe Lombardo with an advantage over Democratic challenger Aaron Ford in the Nevada governor’s race.
An analysis done by statistician and pioneering statistical election forecaster, Nate Silver, shows Lombardo with a rounded-up 4.4 percentage-point polling advantage over Ford—48.1% to 43.8%.
These numbers were largely based upon five polls conducted in July — three Republican-commissioned polls showing Lombardo leading by margins of 9, 12, and 7 points (9.3-point average); an independent poll (Wedgewood) finding Lombardo with a three-point edge; and a Democrat-sponsored poll having the race even.
The election forecasting website Race to the White House says from Aug. 4 to Aug. 18, Nevada had the second biggest change among all the governor’s races based on statistical modeling predictions.
It shows Lombardo gaining nearly 12 percentage points in his likelihood of winning.
At the beginning of August, Race to the White House gave Lombardo a 67.7% chance of winning. Now, it shows Lombardo with a 79.3% chance to Ford’s 20.7%.
The FiftyPlusOne Nevada Poll tracking the candidates had Lombardo ahead by over 5 points (48.6% to 43.2%) on August 14.
Three election forecasters call the race tilts/leans Republican (Sabato’s Crystal Ball; Race to the White House; Inside Elections) and two have it a Toss-up (Cook Political Report; 270 to Win).
Nevada’s latest campaign report on July 15 established Lombardo was again the most prolific fundraiser in Nevada.
These are the final looks at candidates’ finances before the general election. Money is not everything in determining an election winner, but it’s vital in getting a message across.
Ford’s campaign raised $1.4 million on the campaign side and $1.1 million through affiliated political action committees (PACs).
That fell way short of Lombardo’s fundraising haul of more than $16 million, consisting of $2.1 million from his direct campaign and nearly $14 via affiliated PACs.
Ford’s campaign reported it had $3.7 million in cash on hand going into the general election compared to Lombardo’s $9 million.
The governor and Republican-aligned groups spent $13 million on ads since December 2025, while Democrats spent only $77,000.
The pro-Lombardo Better Nevada PAC has reserved more than $20 million in television, radio, streaming and cable ads to help re-elect Lombardo, according to Politico.
The ads will run from August through Election Day in November. That reservation comes on top of at least $6 million the PAC has already spent on ads this cycle.
In June, Lombardo amassed 172,150 votes in the GOP primary, 91% of the vote. Ford received 118,831 votes in the Democratic primary, 63% of the vote. More than one in three Democrats (37%) failed to vote for Ford.
In July, “Democrats for Lombardo” was announced made up of 130 registered Democrats from business, labor, education, state and local government.
The chair is David Goldwater, a longtime Democrat business leader and former state legislator. Co-chair is Danny Thompson, former AFL-CIO executive director and Assemblyman. Members include Bob Barengo, former Speaker of the Nevada Assembly.
Back in November, Lombardo won the endorsement of Nevada’s largest teachers’ union.
During the 2023 legislative session, the Clark County Education Association worked closely with Lombardo on teacher pay and for making it easier for schools to discipline students by rolling back 2019 “restorative justice” legislative overreach.
The union’s backing of a Republican is a significant shift from 2022 when it declined to endorse Lombardo.
Nevada’s Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation reported in July that Nevada has led the nation in job growth for 11 consecutive months through June.
Lombardo can claim to have created 100,000 new jobs since he took office.
The news on Lombardo is a positive harbinger for his re-election. However, Democrats envision an anti-Trump tsunami in November where Republican candidates confront an electoral wood chipper.