ualrpublicradio.org · September 8, 2026
Democrats see rare signs of hope in solidly red Arkansas’ midterms
# Democrats see rare signs of hope in solidly red Arkansas’ midterms
KUAR | By Tess Vrbin / Arkansas Advocate
Published September 8, 2026 at 9:53 AM CDT
Tess Vrbin / Arkansas Advocate
Signs promote Democratic candidates on the November ballot outside a cabin at Mount Nebo State Park during the park’s annual chicken fry on Aug. 29, 2026.
From the Arkansas Advocate:
DARDANELLE — The annual Mount Nebo Chicken Fry, a mainstay of Arkansas politics for generations, saw a break from tradition this year.
In election years, the Democratic and Republican parties usually rent two cabins as their headquarters for the day while they make their case to potential voters lured to the campground by carriage rides, live music and chicken dinners. This year, the Libertarian party rented the Republican cabin.
The problem wasn’t a lack of Republican presence or interest but due to party members having previous commitments, said former Yell County GOP chairman Clay Hooten, who manned a tent the party used instead during the Aug. 29 event.
Even so, the two cabins were surrounded by signs promoting Democratic and Libertarian candidates on the November ballot. Democrat and Libertarian candidates, T-shirts and buttons outnumbered those of Republicans throughout the chicken fry, an unusual sight in the heart of a county where President Donald Trump won nearly 80% of the vote two years ago.
The scene was a small but hopeful sign for Democrats, whose efforts to break Republicans’ lock on Arkansas politics have fallen short for more than a decade. But Trump’s growing unpopularity, a recent poll and national attention surrounding races for the U.S. House and Senate are fueling Democrats’ belief that there’s an opening even in the reddest of states in November.
“I’m tired of people going to the polls to vote against something,” said Kelly Grappe, the Democratic nominee for secretary of state. “I want to give people something to vote for, and I have a vision for this state where the people truly do have a voice.”
The party still faces long odds in Arkansas, where top Republican candidates far outpace their Democratic rivals in fundraising. And at a time when national Democrats and political observers see Senate races in Republican-led states like Texas and Kansas as competitive, Arkansas isn’t viewed the same way. The Cook Political Report classifies the state’s races for governor, U.S. Senate and U.S. House as “solid Republican.”
But, with less than two months before Election Day, Democrats are trying to capitalize on what could be the most favorable political environment they’ve seen in years.
US Senate race heats up
JOHN SYKES / Arkansas Advocate
U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton addresses supporters at Republican Party headquarters in downtown Little Rock on March 3, 2026 after being declared the winner of his party’s primary
The biggest prize for Democrats would be the Senate seat held by Republican Tom Cotton, the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee who easily won his second term in 2020 with no Democratic opponent.
He’s seeking a third term against Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer who closed her family’s Jackson County soybean farm last year due to financial strain she attributes to the Trump administration’s tariffs.
An August poll from Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College showed Shoffner with a slim lead over Cotton, within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points. Shoffner has also made national headlines for her campaign’s focus on her rural background, the increasing cost of living and portraying Cotton’s policy priorities as against Arkansans’ best interests.
Republicans have pushed back on the poll. Another poll from Washington D.C.-based J.L. Partners showed Cotton with a sizable lead over Shoffner, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Tess Vrbin / Arkansas Advocate
Cindy Henry organizes postcards for Hallie Shoffner’s U.S. Senate bid at the campaign’s Little Rock headquarters on Sept. 3, 2026.
But the Talk Business poll has ramped up enthusiasm for Shoffner, said Cindy Henry, a retiree from North Little Rock who volunteers for the campaign two days a week.
“We’ll get 40 to 50 calls a day [from] all kinds of people wanting to be heard, with all kinds of issues: personal, medical, jobs, farms, you name it,” Henry said.
Cotton’s campaign emphasizes that he “helped pass the biggest middle-class tax cut in American history, cut regulations to drive down energy production costs, secured the border with President Trump, and fights for a stronger military, bringing home billions of dollars to Arkansas communities in the process,” a spokesperson said in a Friday email.
Two super PACs, America One and Arkansans for Democracy and Justice, have spent more than $3 million combined on text messages and ads assisting Cotton’s bid. His campaign portrays Shoffner as too far left for Arkansas, criticizing her for remarks she made this year supporting defunding Immigration and Customs Enforcement “as it exists right now.”
Katie Adkins / Arkansas Advocate
Hallie Shoffner, running for a U.S. Senate seat, attends the Hope Watermelon Festival in Hope, Arkansas on Saturday, August 8, 2026.
Cotton’s campaign has also repeatedly highlighted Shoffner’s past donations to 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and Democratic U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.
Shoffner said in an interview that her campaign is “all about Arkansas,” accusing Cotton of trying to find a scapegoat for voters’ frustrations.
“I want to be the kind of public servant that looks to the future, a better future, and moves forward to that future,” she said.
Cotton has consistently allied himself with Trump, whose approval rating in Arkansas and nationwide has declined as the costs of necessities and groceries remain high.
Henry said she’s seen this firsthand as someone on Social Security and managing her family’s farm in Lonoke. Her farming income has plummeted while tariffs have raised the costs of insurance and utilities, she said.
The Arkansans that have contacted Shoffner’s campaign headquarters “want solutions, not rhetoric” and are becoming disillusioned with Cotton’s “same old song and dance,” Henry said.
Tess Vrbin / Arkansas Advocate
From left: Libertarian lieutenant governor candidate Michael Kalagias, Libertarian U.S. Senate candidate Jeff Wadlin and Stand Up Arkansas co-founders Steve and Kelly Grappe chat at the Mount Nebo Chicken Fry on Aug. 29, 2026. Kelly Grappe is the Democratic candidate for secretary of state.
“We get people that call in that are Republicans that say, ‘I can’t vote for him. Tell me why I should vote for her,’” Henry said.
Libertarian Jeff Wadlin, who is garnering single-digit support in polls, is hoping that voter discontent with both parties could help him.
Wadlin’s candidacy is for “politically homeless” Arkansas voters who “feel like we should just be solving problems like neighbors, working together and not getting angry with each other over cultural issues,” he told the audience at the Mount Nebo Chicken Fry’s pie auction.
Central Arkansas House seat considered in play
All four of Arkansas’ Republican U.S. House members face challengers this year, but it’s the Little Rock area where Democrats are once again directing the most attention.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently added the 2nd District seat held by Rep. French Hill to its list of GOP seats it’s targeting. The Talk Business & Politics poll indicates that Chris Jones, the Democrat challenging Hill in central Arkansas’ 2nd District, has a slim lead over Hill within the margin of error.
U.S. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Rep. French Hill of Arkansas talks with Little Rock City Director Joan Adcock before a hearing on the Little Rock Housing Authority on March 13, 2026.
Ainsley Plat