Hearings to examine deterrence on NATO's Eastern flank.

1[Joint House and Senate Hearing, 119 Congress]2[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]34                   DETERRENCE ON NATO'S EASTERN FLANK5=======================================================================67                                HEARING89                               BEFORE THE1011                       COMMISSION ON SECURITY AND12                          COOPERATION IN EUROPE1314                        U.S. HELSINKI COMMISSION1516                     U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES1718                    ONE HUNDRED NINETEENTH CONGRESS1920                             FIRST SESSION2122                               __________2324                           November 17, 20252526                               __________2728 Printed for the use of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in29                                 Europe3031                              [CSCE119-3]3233[GRAPHIC NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]3435                       Available via www.csce.gov36                                __________3738                   U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE3962-220                  WASHINGTON : 202640-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------4142            COMMISSION ON SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE4344                        U.S. HELSINKI COMMISSION4546            U.S. SENATE                     U.S. HOUSE4748ROGER F. WICKER, Mississippi         JOE WILSON, South Carolina Co-49    Chairman                             Chairman50SHELDON WHITEHOUSE, Rhode Island     STEVE COHEN, Tennessee Ranking51    Ranking Member			Member52JOHN BOOZMAN, Arkansas		     ROBERT B. ADERHOLT, Alabama53KATIE BRITT, Alabama		     EMANUEL CLEAVER II, Missouri54JOHN FETTERMAN, Pennsylvania	     RUBEN GALLEGO, Arizona55JEANNE SHAHEEN, New Hampshire	     RICHARD HUDSON, North Carolina56TINA SMITH, Minnesota	 	     MICHAEL LAWLER, New York57THOM TILLIS, North Carolina	     VICTORIA SPARTZ, Indiana58MIKE ROUNDS, South Dakota	     MARC VEASEY, Texas5960                            EXECUTIVE BRANCH61                 Department of State - to be appointed62                Department of Defense - to be appointed63                Department of Commerce - to be appointed6465                        C  O  N  T  E  N  T  S6667                              ----------68                                                                   Page6970                             COMMISSIONERS7172Hon. Roger Wicker, Chairman, from Mississippi....................     17374Hon. Joe Wilson, Co-Chairman from South Carolina.................     27576Hon. Steve Cohen, Ranking Member, from Tennessee.................    137778Hon. John Boozman, from Arizona..................................    147980Hon. Greg Murphy, from North Carolina............................    168182                               WITNESSES8384Margus Tsahkna, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Estonia.     48586Seth Jones, President, Defense and Security Department, Center87  for Strategic and International Studies........................     68889Peter Rough, Director, Center on Europe and Eurasia, Hudson90  Institute......................................................     89192                   DETERRENCE ON NATO'S EASTERN FLANK9394                              ----------9596 COMMISSION ON SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN97                                    EUROPE,98                          U.S. HELSINKI COMMISSION,99                                  HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES,100                                         Monday, November 17, 2025.101102    The hearing was held from 3:35 p.m. to 5:06 p.m., Room 222,103Russell Senate Office Building, Senator Roger Wicker [R-MS],104Chairman, Commission for Security and Cooperation in Europe,105presiding.106107    Committee Members Present: Senator Roger Wicker [R-MS],108Chairman; Representative Joe Wilson [R-SC], Co-Chairman;109Representative Steve Cohen [D-TN], Ranking Member;110Representative Greg Murphy [R-NC]; Representative Jake Ellzey111[R-TX]; Senator John Boozman [R-AR].112    Witnesses: Margus Tsahkna, Minister of Foreign Affairs,113Republic of Estonia; Seth Jones, President, Defense and114Security Department, Center for Strategic and International115Studies; Peter Rough, Director, Center on Europe and Eurasia,116Hudson Institute.117118OPENING STATEMENT OF ROGER WICKER, CHAIRMAN, U.S. SENATE, FROM119                          MISSISSIPPI120121    Chairman Wicker: This hearing of the Helsinki Commission122will come to order. We convene today to discuss a timely and123important matter, deterrence on the eastern flank of NATO.124    This fall, Russia violated the sovereign airspace of four125countries on NATO's eastern flank in quick succession. Putin's126drones crossed into the airspace of Poland, Romania, Estonia,127and Lithuania. These provocations are not accidents, and they128are not isolated. They are part of a coordinated campaign to129probe NATO's defenses, gauge allied reactions, and test how far130Moscow can push before meeting a firm response.131    This is a taste of Russia's shadow war, a war that extends132far beyond airspace, across Europe. Russia has executed133cyberattacks and engaged in sabotage and arson. The dictator134Vladimir Putin has attacked critical infrastructure and ordered135targeted assassinations. He has interfered in elections and136weaponized migration. Moscow hopes the West will treat each of137these crimes as a separate incident instead of seeing the138broader pattern. Today, we hear about the broader pattern.139    Ukraine stands at the center of the confrontation between140Russia and the West. Valiant Ukrainians are holding back the141very forces that would otherwise be at NATO's doorstep. The142Kremlin is very interested in how we and our allies support143Ukraine's defense.144    In September, I joined Senator and Commissioner Jeanne145Shaheen to introduce the Eastern Flank Strategic Partnership146Act. That legislation would formalize the United States147commitment to our frontline allies and ensure U.S. security148assistance is directed where the threat is greatest. It is149worth noting that the bill would prioritize assistance for150countries that are already investing in their own defense.151Ultimately, we want our allies to have the tools they need to152deter Russian aggression.153    Just three weeks ago, the Pentagon announced plans to154reduce the U.S. rotational presence in Romania at the very155moment when Russian drones are crossing into NATO airspace.156House Armed Services Chairman Rogers and I made it clear that157such a move sends a strong signal and sends the wrong signal.158Rather than withdrawing troops from Europe, we should seek to159impose costs on Vladimir Putin. If we do not, we invite further160acts of aggression. We risk undermining deterrence in Europe.161    Credible deterrence ultimately depends on effective and162decisive responses. On NATO's eastern front, Moscow must be163shown that any violation of allied territory by drone,164aircraft, or other means will meet a unified, rapid, and, if165necessary, lethal reaction. In this, the United States must166continue to lead with strength.167    I would also like to note that tomorrow, the people of168Latvia will celebrate their independence day. The festivities169are a powerful reminder that the freedom of many of the170countries we will discuss today was hard-won and must be171steadfastly defended.172    We are highly honored to begin today's panel with Margus173Tsahkna, the Estonian Minister of Foreign Affairs. We are also174joined by two American experts. Seth Jones is the president of175the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic176and International Studies, CSIS. Peter Rough is the director of177the Center on Europe and Eurasia at the Hudson Institute. I178thank these distinguished witnesses for appearing before the179Commission today, and I look forward to their testimony.180    Now I turn to a longtime friend, my colleague from the181House of Representatives and a steadfast supporter of the free182people of Eastern Europe, as well as those who wish to be free,183Joe Wilson.184185 STATEMENT OF JOE WILSON, CO-CHAIRMAN, U.S. HOUSE, FROM SOUTH186                            CAROLINA187188    Co-Chairman Wilson: Thank you very much, Chairman Roger189Wicker. Thank you for your leadership and thank you for the190extraordinary staff of CSCE who are so effective in working191together as we work together--bipartisan, too, and House,192Senate, bicameral and bipartisan. This is such a meaningful193organization.194    With that in mind, I am grateful to appreciate Foreign195Minister of Estonia Margus Tsahkna, as well as our196distinguished witnesses.197    We are in a war we did not chose, a war between dictators198with rule of gun, invading democracies with rule of law.199Ukrainian soldiers are bravely holding the line on the front,200but this war is not confined to Ukrainian trenches. Its201consequences are felt across the democratic world, including202and especially our NATO eastern flank, where the memory of203brutal occupation by the totalitarian Soviet Union is still204recent and threatens to return with planning by war criminal205Putin to restore the failed Soviet Union.206    Strong and secure borders are a cornerstone of democracy207and a preserver of peace. It should always be appreciated the208United States never recognized the occupation of Estonia,209Latvia, and Lithuania as Soviet republics. America has always210recognized that Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are sovereign211states, not Soviet republics. Despite being small countries by212population and geographical size, the will of the people to213live in prosperity and freedom is demonstrated by their214tangible commitments to defense and investments in security215technologies to protect their borders.216    President Trump made the decision to deploy troops to217Poland, bolster defense of the eastern flank, because the218reality is clear. War criminal Putin has consistently stated219his designs on sovereign eastern flank territory. These are220countries that have the strongest voice for America221internationally, have invested the most in their defense222proportionate to GDP [Gross Domestic Product]. There is no223substitute for U.S. presence to maintain credible deterrence,224and these rotational deployments provide critical readiness225training in countries eager to host American troops.226    I have visited firsthand at Novo Selo base in Bulgaria,227MK[Mihail Kogalniceanu] Airbase in Romania, additionally the228bases of Lithuania and Poland. I am so grateful that it has229always been true that President Trump understands the threats,230in that he was the first to put American troops, for the first231time in history, in Poland to stop war criminal Putin. He sent232Javelin missiles to the people of Ukraine to stop war criminal233Putin's tanks. To stop the funding of war criminal Putin, he234stopped Nord Stream 2, which was so significant, as we have a235president who understands peace through strength.236    War criminal Vladimir Putin is driven by an imperial237ambition and a desire to recreate the failed Soviet empire. Our238eastern flank allies know better than anyone, deterrence is the239first and best line of defense against an enemy with an240insatiable appetite for invasion. Airspace and maritime241violations are only part of his effort to probe NATO defenses,242test our unity, and undermine the institutions he despises.243    Russia's not acting alone. The Kremlin is sustained by a244coalition of hostile dictatorships, from the regime in Tehran,245which supplies drones and weapons, to the Chinese Communist246Party, which fuels Russia's rearmament, to the Democratic247People's Republic of North Korea, which provides artillery and248manpower. These dictatorships share one goal, infiltrating and249weaken free countries.250    Last year, I chaired a Helsinki Commission hearing on,251``Russia's Shadow War on NATO,'' where we examined the spectrum252of Moscow's overt and covert attacks on the Western world.253These tactics have only grown more brazen and more coordinated254and more insulting and more mocking, especially along the255eastern flank. Reasserting deterrence and countering these256capabilities is costly and requires serious challenges to be257made in areas of production and procurement, but will make us258more prepared and efficient.259    The bottom line: Free countries and the free world cannot260wait until a full-scale invasion is at its borders. Last month,261Ranking Member Steve Cohen and I introduced the Eastern Flank262Strategic Partnership Act in the House. The companion is the263bipartisan bill led by Chairman Roger Wicker and Senator Jeanne264Shaheen. The legislation ensures the United States treats the265eastern flank as a priority theater and that allies investing266in their own defense receive the support they need. We want to267make it unmistakably clear America stands with the dynamic268frontline partners. Their security is American security.269    The people of Estonia and all of Central and Eastern Europe270know the price of freedom, and they understand the stakes.271Putin's imperialist agenda does not stop at Ukraine--by272occupying Transnistria of Moldova, by occupying and invading273Georgia, and then rigging elections in the Republic of274Georgia--and neither can our resolve. The sick symbiotic275relationship between war criminal Putin, the Chinese Communist276Party, and the murderous dictatorship of North Korea, and the277regime in Tehran, requires deterrence in American and European278theaters to prevent aggression in the Indo-Pacific as a warning279to the Chinese Communist Party that there is resolve.280    There is broad bipartisan support to continue programs like281the Baltic Security Initiative, which supplements the282significant financial contributions made by Baltic allies. This283initiative puts money back into American defense companies and284is a great return on investment. These are model allies as--are285the foundation of the defense of American families and against286U.S. adversaries.287    Thank you to the witnesses, and I look forward to your288insight.289    I yield back.290    Chairman Wicker: Thank you very much, Congressman--Co-291Chairman Wilson, for your very fine statement.292    At this point, we will hear testimony from our three293distinguished witnesses. We will begin, of course, with the294Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Estonia, Margus295Tsahkna. Sir, did I say your name somewhere near correctly?296    Mr. Tsahkna: Thank you, Chairman. You said it more297correctly than normal in Estonia. Thank you for that.298    Chairman Wicker: You are recognized, and we appreciate you299coming and sharing your knowledge with us.300301   TESTIMONY OF MARGUS TSAHKNA, MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS,302                      REPUBLIC OF ESTONIA303304    Mr. Tsahkna: Mr. Chairman, distinguished commissioners,305Members of Congress, first of all, thank you for the306opportunity to testify before you today. Let me begin by307expressing my gratitude to you, and to the entire U.S. Congress308and to the American people, for your steadfast and longstanding309political and military support to Estonia. The United States310never recognized the Soviet annexation of the Baltic states of311Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania after the Second World War. You312have been there with us every step of the way since 1991. Your313unwavering support of us informs our unwavering support of314Ukraine.315    Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine is about to enter316its fourth year. President Putin's maximalist objectives have317not changed: To conquer Ukraine, to dominate its near abroad,318to divide the West, and to push the U.S. out of Europe.319Russia's attempts to weaken the West follow this old Soviet320playbook, fostering division and fear. Russia remains convinced321that it can outlast both Ukraine and the West, but President322Putin has miscalculated. Ukraine has not fallen, the West has323not crumbled, and our unity endures.324    Commissioners, Russia's war is not just about Ukraine. It325is a threat to and an attack on the entire transatlantic326security architecture. Estonia, like many other NATO allies,327has witnessed Russia ramping up its shadow war against the West328over the last couple of years. I would like to bring a couple329of examples.330    First, on September 19 of this year, three Russian MiG-31331fighter jets, armed with air-to-air missiles, violated Estonian332and NATO airspace. The aircraft remained in our airspace for 12333minutes, flew a depth of six miles and across a distance of 60334miles, and were as close as 10 miles from the Estonian capital335of Tallinn. Ten miles is the distance from this meeting room to336Tysons Corner in Virginia. The incursion in September was the337fourth violation of our airspace this year alone, and 83rd338violation since 2003--yes, 83rd violation since 2003.339    Second, in August, we expelled the first secretary from the340Russian embassy in Estonia for deliberately undermining our341constitutional order and for sanctions violations.342    Third, we have seen Russian naval ships and Russian fighter343aircraft escorting its shadow fleet vessels in the Baltic Sea.344A very concrete incident took place on May 13 when, again,345Russia's fighter jet violated Estonian airspace, escorting the346shadow fleet vessel.347    Fourth, in late 2023, Russian intelligence executed a348sabotage operation in Estonia that targeted individuals and349private and public property.350    Fifth, starting in late 2023, Russia started sending waves351of migrants to Estonia and Finnish borders, and we stopped352them.353    Sixth, in April 2024, Russian GPS jamming of civilian air354traffic forced the Finnish airline, Finnair, to suspend flights355between the Finnish capital of Helsinki and the Estonian city356of Tartu.357    Seventh, in May 2024, the Russian border guard unilaterally358removed from the Narva River the buoys that demarcate the359border between Estonia and Russian. I know that several of the360few esteemed commissioners have seen the Narva River firsthand.361    None of these acts occurred in isolation. Similar incidents362have occurred across Europe, unfortunately.363    Dear commissioners, the Russian threat is real, and Russian364aggression knows no border or limits. We expect Russia's hybrid365campaign to increase and intensify. Russia's goal is to divide366the West socially and politically and to disrupt our367willingness and ability to support Ukraine. Our response must368be clear. Every Russian provocation will mean a NATO more369united, a West more resolute, and Ukraine more tightly370interlinked with the Euro-Atlantic family.371    While conquering Ukraine remains Russia's top priority,372Russia is successfully conducting a massive reform of its armed373forces. Despite all the Russian casualties in Ukraine, the size374of the Russian military is growing. One consequence of this375reform will be more Russian personnel and more Russian military376assets deployed to Baltic and Finnish borders. In 2016, there377were some 125,000 Russian troops as close as 25 miles from the378Estonian border. Our population is 1.3 million people. For379scale, imagine having some 35 million hostile troops, 25 miles380into Canada or Mexico.381    Our intelligence suggests that within the next two to three382years or less, Russia will return to Baltic borders with even383more troops and military equipment than they had before full-384scale invasion to Ukraine. Russia has also already demonstrated385the ability to rapidly generate large combat-ready forces, but386NATO is not standing idly by. Baltic skies are protected by a387NATO air policing mission, NATO launched the Eastern Sentry and388Baltic Sentry operations to better protect NATO's eastern389flank. Politically, as a response to our airspace violation,390NATO and United Nations Security Council sent a clear message391to Russia: Its aggression against Ukraine and its provocations392against the West will not succeed.393    Thanks to U.S. leadership, NATO recently agreed to a394historic increase of its defense spending. Estonia's core395defense spending will hit 5.4 percent of GDP next year. Europe396is expected to invest some 7 trillion [dollars] in defense by3972033, including in co-production opportunities. In Estonia, we398continue enhancing our border security and our military399deterrence, and we continue sending at least 0.25 percent of400GDP to Ukraine in military aid.401    Here, I wish to thank the U.S. Congress, specifically. For402the last several years, you have supported the Baltic Security403Initiative. This program has accelerated the development of404military capabilities such as air defense and long-range fires405across the Baltic states. In 2025, for every dollar in security406assistance from U.S., we put $21 into our defense budget, and407most of it is going back to the U.S. economy. The presence of408U.S. troops on NATO's eastern front is likewise invaluable.409Estonia is honored to provide your troops with top-of-the-class410military housing and unique training opportunities. All this411makes NATO's deterrence credible. A stronger Europe is a412stronger NATO, a stronger America.413    To conclude, we will not let Ukraine surrender to Russian414aggression or let Russia dictate the terms of peace and415security in Europe. Mr. Chairman, commissioners, Members of416Congress, I thank you for the privilege of testifying here417today. I look forward to your questions.418    Thank you.419    Chairman Wicker: Thank you very much.420    Mr. Seth Jones, we are delighted to have CSIS back with us.421You are now recognized for your testimony, sir.422423   TESTIMONY OF SETH JONES, PRESIDENT, DEFENSE AND SECURITY424   DEPARTMENT, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES425426    Mr. Jones: Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Thanks, Mr. Wilson, Dr.427Murphy, Mr. Ellzey, and other distinguished members of the428Commission. Honored to share my views on this subject,429particularly returning from NATO headquarters last week, and430also our allies in the U.K.431    I would like to reflect on three main points in my432testimony here. Happy to get to other issues in the discussion.433First is that the Russian government has conducted and434continues to conduct a growing campaign of sabotage and435subversion against the U.S. and Europe, designed in part to436target countries, companies, and individuals that have provided437support to Ukraine. What else did we need to see than, within438the last 24 hours, the active sabotage on the Polish rail line439that brings materiel, and has brought Members of Congress, into440Ukraine from Poland. Just the latest example of sabotage441operations likely perpetrated by the Russian State.442    Second, much of this campaign has been led by the main443intelligence directorate of the GRU [Glavnoye Razvedyvatelnoye444Upravleniye]. These attacks generally across Europe, but we445have also seen the targeting of U.S. bases, collection--446generally been intelligence collection. They have included447bombings, some of which I will go into detail on, drone448incursions, sabotage against undersea cables and pipelines,449electronic attack, cyber operations, as well as other incidents450and intelligence collection against U.S. bases in Europe.451    Then, third, a subject that I hope we get into in some more452detail, is I do think the U.S. and Europe need to develop a453more effective strategy that includes both defensive but also454offensive measures to strengthen deterrence on NATO's eastern455flank, including with our Estonian allies. Also, to raise the456costs on Moscow of its continuing aggression, which is a457component of what it is doing in its full-scale invasion of458Ukraine and its nuclear saber-rattling. Actually, we see a459Russian campaign that goes from irregular or sabotage460operations through to a conventional, full-scale invasion and461nuclear saber rattling across the conflict continuum. My462government time has been in U.S. Special Operations, but it has463been much more than those kinds of acts.464    I think what is interesting is not that the Russians and465the Soviets before them have been involved in these activities.466Much of that during the cold war we referred to, and the467Soviets referred to, as ``active measures.'' What is new is the468full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but also the sheer number of469activities. The minister remarked about several of them.470According to our data set of Russian activity, between 2022 and4712023, the number of Russian sabotage and subversive acts in472Europe quadrupled during that one-year time period, and then473tripled again between 2023 and 2024.474    Those Russian activities, some of which we assess were475Russian government, some of them were leveraging partner forces476including elements of Russian criminal organizations or other477actors in Europe, included things like explosives against478companies that were housing or building materiel sent to479Ukraine. The use of blunt instruments against undersea fiber480optic cables, including as part of the shadow fleet, and then a481range of other activities including targeting transportation482links with both cyber, but as we have seen recently, also483kinetic activity--bombings against key rail links.484    The range of reasons we assess the Russians are likely to485do it--have been doing this. Let me just briefly note that I486think there are a number of measures that--there have been some487helpful steps, but I would just add a few things to consider.488One is, I think, we have to be very careful about a decrease in489the U.S. conventional footprint in Europe now. We have490advocated in research of U.S. force posture, we call it 4+2491force posture, with four brigade combat teams in Europe. I492think it is important to send a message to the Russians,493particularly with U.S. Army capabilities, that we are serious494and we--and those would be important for deterrence.495    On offense, I will say, just very briefly, I think the496Russians are vulnerable on the economic sanctions, both primary497and secondary, that are worth thinking about escalating. I498think the Russians are also vulnerable on a much more targeted499activity against their shadow fleet, of which there is500intelligence about. Then finally, a need to continue providing501assistance to Ukraine. For a range of these reasons, I think502Russia can be deterred. I do think the U.S. needs to play an503important role.504    With that, Mr. Chairman, I would turn it back.505    Chairman Wicker: Well, thank you--thank you very, very506much.507    We now recognize Mr. Peter Rough. Do I have that508pronunciation correct?509    Mr. Rough: You can call me whatever you like, Senator510Wicker. Peter Rough is the conventional pronunciation.511    Chairman Wicker: Rough, Okay. Very good. Sometimes, if I512get it right 50 percent of the time, I feel like I am batting513.500. You are recognized, and we are thrilled to have you here.514    Mr. Jones: You got my name right, Mr. Chairman.515    Chairman Wicker: All right, yes. [Laughs.] I struggled, and516I did practice all evening last night.517518   TESTIMONY OF PETER ROUGH, DIRECTOR, CENTER ON EUROPE AND519                   EURASIA, HUDSON INSTITUTE520521    Mr. Rough: Chairman Wicker, Co-chairman Wilson, and522distinguished members of the Commission, thank you for this523opportunity. The views I express in my testimony, which I will524now summarize, are my own and should not be construed as525representing an official position of Hudson Institute.526    As the minister pointed out, and as Dr. Jones elucidated,527Russia is prosecuting a campaign of hybrid warfare against528NATO. Putin has complemented this campaign with nuclear threats529to gradually tilt the security environment between Russia and530NATO in Moscow's favor. Russia's intention is to stress the531alliance and exacerbate divisions between allies and within532nations. The Kremlin brackets these actions with persistent533information operations. To put it directly, Russia is534undertaking a comprehensive campaign of political warfare535designed to weaken the West.536    There is near consensus in the analytical community that as537long as Russia struggles to take territory in Ukraine, it538cannot afford a broader war with NATO. While this judgment is539almost certainly correct, it risks lulling the West into a540false sense of security. Because Russia is an offensive and541revisionist power, while NATO is a defensive alliance, Moscow542has the advantage of choosing both the time and place of any543potential confrontation. The salient point is that while the544overall military balance favors NATO by a significant margin,545the balance of forces in some parts of Eastern Europe may favor546Russia in a blitz scenario.547    What is to be done? U.S. forces are the backbone of548deterrence in Europe. U.S. commanders have testified that549permanently stationed troops are invaluable for learning the550local terrain and improving interoperability with allies. Yet,551until it established U.S. Land Forces 5th Corps Forward Command552at Poznan, Poland, in 2023, the U.S. had no permanent force553presence in the new member states of NATO, in deference to the554NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997. That political agreement with555Russia lost all meaning with Putin's full-scale invasion of556Ukraine.557    To counter whatever misperceptions may arise from the558recent U.S. decision to pull an infantry brigade back to Fort559Campbell, U.S. planners may wish to consider turning a560rotational presence into a permanent force in Eastern Europe.561Given its strategic location near the Port of Constanta on the562Black Sea, Romania is transforming Mihail Kogalniceanu into one563of the largest NATO bases in Europe. As a keynote in Europe's564security architecture, the base could serve as the ideal host565for a modestly sized permanent U.S. garrison.566    Even so, adopting a purely defensive posture against Russia567is unwise, as Seth Jones elucidated. For the Kremlin, bribing568the captains of cargo ships to drag their rusty anchors across569the Baltic seabed to cut critical cables would cost a mere570pittance. The total cost to Russia of launching its recent571drone salvo into Poland totaled no more than a few hundred572thousand dollars. As a first step, therefore, NATO's political573leaders may wish to change the Kremlin's cost-benefit calculus574by tasking commanders to reassess the rules of engagement for575the alliance's Baltic air policing mission. Such a directive576would, at the very least, get Moscow's attention.577    NATO could also tie Russian violations of allied airspace578to Russian positions abroad. Ukrainian special forces have579already targeted Wagner Group operators in Africa, from Mali to580Sudan. The West could make clear to Moscow that it would581encourage and facilitate similar operations against Russia's582Africa corps, jeopardizing a lucrative Russian market, should583the violations of allied airspace continue. Alternatively,584every violation of allied territory by a Russian UAV [Unmanned585Aerial Vehicles] could be met with the transfer of a586commensurate number of cruise or ballistic missiles to Ukraine,587whether it is the Swedish-German Taurus or the U.S. Army588Tactical Missile System.589    Furthermore, while the U.S. and Europe cannot order Moscow590to repair damaged infrastructure at the bottom of the Baltic591Sea, it can make clear that it will exact a commensurate cost592for Russian sabotage. Moscow still earns hundreds of millions593of dollars every day in oil sales. The U.S. is eminently594capable of metering its sanctions to mirror Russian actions595against critical infrastructure. At the conventional level, to596ensure that NATO can execute the family of plans ratified at597the Vilnius summit in 2023, NATO's political leadership may598wish to empower and encourage SACEUR to test the force through599regular snap exercises, in addition to the alliance's pre-600planned exercises.601    This would simulate high-pressure conditions and could602identify shortcomings and capabilities, while training the603alliance to move quickly in an emergency setting. It is far604better to strain the NATO force model in peacetime than it605would be in wartime. Finally, this past week has proven very606difficult for Ukraine, from military setbacks in Pokrovsk to607corruption allegations in Kyiv. I would like to close by608reiterating that it remains in the American-European interest609to empower Ukraine in its fight for survival. Thankfully, the610first billions of dollars in European commitments have served611as proof of concept for the PURL [Prioritized Ukraine612Requirements List] system. As more European countries613participate in this arrangement, the program is only likely to614grow.615    It is an honor to testify before you today. Thank you for616this opportunity. I look forward to your questions.617    Chairman Wicker: Well, thank you very much. The fact that618my phone rang gives me an opportunity to remind everyone to619silence all electronic devices.620    Let me begin by you, Mr. Minister. How long have you been621in various public offices in your country?622    Mr. Tsahkna: I have been serving on the government level,623the Cabinet member, as a minister of social affairs, minister624of defense, and now minister of foreign affairs. Altogether, I625can say, maybe, like, 6 years. I have been in the public sector626as a representative as well since 2007, so it has been a pretty627long time.628    Chairman Wicker: You know--you know your people pretty629well. Is there any sentimentality in Estonia to go back to the630days of Soviet rule?631    Mr. Tsahkna: That is zero sentimentality, because of our632history. During the Soviet occupation, we lost every fifth633Estonian. All these stories are still in our families. We know634exactly what happened with killings, with deportations, with635escaping from the country. Unfortunately, we see exactly the636same things happening in 21st century by Russia in Ukraine.637    Chairman Wicker: You are very close to your neighbors in638Latvia and Lithuania, both physically and also philosophically.639Would that be correct to say?640    Mr. Tsahkna: It is correct.641    Chairman Wicker: How many--what percentage of the642population in Estonia are principally Russian speaking?643    Mr. Tsahkna: We have close to 30 percent of Russian-644speaking minority.645    Chairman Wicker: About the same in Latvia. Would that be646correct?647    Mr. Tsahkna: In Latvia, a bit more, but the scale is the648same.649    Chairman Wicker: Russian speakers, high percentage also in650Lithuania, is that correct?651    Mr. Tsahkna: Historically, Lithuania had less forced652immigration during the Soviet times, so they have less than 10653percent.654    Chairman Wicker: I will ask you a leading question. What is655your opinion of the absurd assertion of some people in the656United States that, because residents of other countries speak657Russian, they identify themselves more as people desiring to be658ruled by Russia?659    Mr. Tsahkna: Our experience is that these people, Russian-660speaking people who are living in Estonia, know even better661than we how the life in Russia looks like. Without freedom,662under the terror, and also the threat. I can say that most of663these people, they do not want to have Russia back to Estonia,664Latvia, and Lithuania. Of course, it depends on the generations665as well. Because older people normally remember the good old666times when they had their special rights during the Soviet667occupation. I can say that, based on our study and also668experience, we have had cases when Russian citizens were living669in Estonia, they are traveling to Russia, and also some of them670have sent to Ukraine, and they are dead. They know exactly what671Russia means.672    Chairman Wicker: Mr. Rough and Mr. Jones, imagine, if you673will, a young couple in their thirties sitting around in674Camden, South Carolina, or perhaps in Corinth, Mississippi,675just starting out. A couple of kids. Working hard. Both of them676in jobs trying to make ends meet and deal with the challenges677of youth and a family. What is it to them whether Ukraine or678the Baltic nations are overtaken by a Russian dictator? What679does it matter to them? What is their stake?680    Mr. Rough: Well, Senator, thank you for that question. I681would argue that the peace and stability of Europe have long682been directly connected to peace and prosperity in the United683States. Some two-thirds of global foreign direct investment is684transatlantic. Something like 46 of 50 U.S. states trade more685with Europe than they do with China. This is by far the most686intense and closely knit economic environment you will find687anywhere in the world. I interpret Russia's attack on Ukraine,688including all of the hybrid operations in Ukraine's near689abroad, as Russia's, if not opening, now I would say almost690decades-long attack on the European security order. This691impacts thousands of jobs. It impacts huge amounts of692investment. If European security begins to crumble, so will693some of the economic well-being we have here in the United694States.695    Chairman Wicker: Mr. Jones, same question. I might add to696that, what is that couple's stake, or those couples' stake, in697the validity and sanctity of our country's solemn word when we698give a promise?699    Mr. Jones: Well, I think we have committed, as part of a700NATO member, to protect democracy in our own country, but also701certainly in others as well that we have formal alliances with.702You know, it was interesting, on trips to Japan, Korea, and703Taiwan recently, all three of them, senior leadership of all704three countries, said: What happens in Ukraine and on the705eastern front has a significant effect on our security. How do706we trust the U.S. going forward if they were to abandon allies707in other places?708    I would also highlight something that is much bigger than709just Russia itself, which is, as we have seen, since the full-710scale invasion of Ukraine started. There has been significant711Chinese assistance into Russia, North Korean assistance,712including North Korean soldiers, and Iranian assistance,713including Shahed industrial capacity in areas like Yelabuga.714Americans in 1939 wondered, why should we care about a Nazi715Germany that was invading Poland, and then continued into716Belgium, and then eventually into France? I think we have got a717revanchist Russia and others as well. I think there is a lot to718be concerned about.719    Chairman Wicker: If I am 100 percent, in my little720household, America first, I still have a stake in what is going721on in the Baltic nations?722    Mr. Jones: Absolutely. I think I am America first, but not723America only.724    Chairman Wicker: So am I. Thank you very much.725    Chairman Wilson,726    Co-Chairman Wilson: Thank you very much, Chairman Wicker.727    Indeed, it is an honor to be with each of you. Foreign728Minister Tsahkna, it is just--it is so encouraging, the success729of Estonia. My visit there, as I mentioned to you, to be on the730banks of the Narva River. The chairman, again, was ahead of the731curve. People may speak Russian, but they do not want to be732part of Russia. They want to be part of Estonia. We have733already heard, 1939, what German-speaking people, the734recognition of Sudetenland, that Hitler had the same plan, and735that is why we need to be strong.736    With that in mind, indeed, Foreign Minister, I want you to737know that unity is--has indeed not crumbled. It is been really738reaffirmed, and I am associate member of the NATO Parliamentary739Assembly. It is just so exciting to me to see NATO standing740together, and no wavering. It is just incredible. Then I am741also grateful to be the co-founder and co-chair of the European742Union Caucus. Again, who would imagine the unity there? The743consequence of that is that one of the most recent studies I744have seen is that, in terms of per-capita investments to assist745the people of Ukraine, the United States has come in 17th per746capita GDP.747    It is really clear with, indeed, the excess over our748providing of aid to our European allies, and so it is just so749positive. Then I am really grateful that, indeed, President750Trump has recognized this in the past by putting American751troops for the first time in Poland, by providing the Javelin752missiles to the people of Ukraine to try to avoid this war in753the first place, and then to stop Nord Stream 2, the funding of754war criminal Putin. With that in mind, where we are is at what755point should NATO shift to default air defense rules of756engagement, including pre-delegated authority to shoot down757hostile drones immediately? What are the operational risks of758remaining under peacetime rules?759    Mr. Tsahkna: Thank you. Thank you for this question. This760is not only, like, practical question. It is actually going761back to history. Also, I see it unfortunately today. This is762something that President Putin is using very, very well. It is763a fear. Is a fear of escalation, which is actually isolating764sometimes our way of thinking what is really happening.765President Putin is using fear against us, and every time Russia766has more pressure, he is going to talk about escalation. He is767still going to talk about nuclear deterrence. Then the Western768part of the world will be frozen. I can say to you that, in our769region, we do not believe in that. That is why we say as well770that the red lines policy and the meaning of NATO must be very771clear.772    If there is a violation of the airspace, and we see the773direct military threat to the NATO member State, we should use774force. As well, it was asked after we called the United Nations775Security Council meeting about this, it was in September when776this high-level United Nations General Assembly week started.777Later on, as well, the same question was asked from President778Trump. He said very clearly that, on the question if we need to779shoot the planes down, it was correct. We need to shoot them780down if there is a threat.781    I think that we have everything in place. We just need to782understand that Putin understands exactly this language. He is783pushing us. He is pushing us. We are hesitating. If we are784based on fear then he is pushing forward again and again. We785seen it since 2007, when President Putin actually published his786plan to the Munich Security Conference. He was very clear that787his goal is to eliminate the root causes, and root causes for788him are a collapse of Soviet Union. In 2008, we saw invasion to789Georgia, and 20 percent of the territory is still occupied.7902014, Ukraine war started, and response was not there. 2022, as791well, we have full-scale war in Europe.792    In that regard, why I am too long? What I want to say is793that we see, very close to Russia, that we must be very clear.794No fear. If there is need to use force, we will need to do it,795and then the red lines are settled.796    Thank you.797    Co-Chairman Wilson: Again, thank you. My time is up.798Actually, I just want to commend President Jones. We are so799grateful for the Center for Strategic and International800Studies, what that means. As we have people around our Eastern801European allies observing what we are saying today, they know802to call on President Jones.803    Then, Director Rough, thank you so much. The Hudson804Institute, how fantastic it is, and a point I want to make, you805mention Constanta. I was 28 years ago visiting Cluj-Napoca in806Romania to recognize a sister city relationship with Columbia,807South Carolina. At that time, somebody said, hey, one day we808dream that American ships will bank at--will be coming to and809docking at Constanta. Well, it came true 10 years later. Not810some far off.811    Additionally, 28 years ago I visited Chelyabinsk in Russia,812where it was a sister city program put together. It was so813impressive to me see our shared culture of art, literature,814architecture, arts in every way, music. My hopes for a free and815independent Russia have been doomed by war criminal Putin. The816people of Russia, I am just hoping one day they too will have817the opportunities the people have of the eastern flank of NATO.818    I yield back.819    Chairman Wicker: Thank you.820    Now the chair recognizes Representative Steve Cohen.821822      STATEMENT OF STEVE COHEN, U.S. HOUSE, FROM TENNESSEE823824    Representative Cohen: Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I thank the825witnesses. I apologize for being a little late. This is most826important subject.827    I visited Narva. You can visually see the city of Narva,828the area, and it is so Russian in terms of stark architecture829that is typical Soviet. The expressions on the people's faces830are those of people who do not seem to be happy campers, unlike831in the rest of Estonia. I am happy to see you, sir. You have832one of the most attractive leadership groups in the world, and833nice that they chose a minority to send here. I enjoyed my834visit to Estonia. Always have. [Laughs.] There is nothing835changed--836    Chairman Wicker: I think the minister is a very handsome837man. [Laughter.]838    Representative Cohen: I concur with the chair. [Laughter.]839He is in a league of his own. [Laughs.] 1939 and today are no840different. The attitudes of Putin and Stalin are no different.841It is Russia, Russia, Russia, Soviet Union, Soviet Union,842Soviet Union, and that has not stopped. That is what drives843Putin. It has driven him since he was KGB Komitent in Germany844and saw the fall of the Berlin Wall, which was awful to him. He845has never forgotten that. Politicians who sometimes forget old846problems and go on to new problems. Sometimes they cannot get847over old problems, and they get into repeating errors of the848past.849    We are going to have--Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are850going to have problems with Russia. They would love to have you851back in the Soviet Union. We need to act strongly. I know852President Trump has mixed postures toward Russia. What he did853in Helsinki was sinful. What he did in Alaska was almost as854sinful to welcome him to our country, to roll out the red855carpet, to have our troops honor him when he just come as a856charade. He never came to Alaska with any idea of working857toward a peace agreement. He does not want peace. He wants to858take over Ukraine. He would like to kill Zelensky. He would859like to go into the other countries in Eastern Europe, and he860will do that.861    Russia has a lot of significant and lethal military862equipment on a scale comparable to ours and China's, and maybe863in some cases surpassing it. They did not do that to win the864science fair. They wanted to come after us and our Eastern865European friends. Our president must understand that, and866strengthen our resolve to help our Eastern European allies,867because that is being America first. They will come after us868eventually. They want world domination. The planes that they869have--missiles that they have got that can stay in flight for870interminable amounts of time are not necessarily intended for871the Baltic countries. It is intended for the United States.872There is no need for those missiles if they were just873interested in Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and other874countries in Eastern Europe. They are after us.875    We need to be prepared for it. We need to fight--know that876Ukraine is fighting the war for us now. They need more877defensive weapons, and they need more authority to attack878Russia and bring the fight to the Russians. That is the only879way we can stop them. Putin only knows power. To retreat from880him, as we did in Helsinki and as we did in Alaska, was wrong.881It only strengthens him. I hope that we get bolder and we882understand the importance of what is happening in Ukraine and883what would happen in the Baltic states if Ukraine is not884successful in fending off the Russians. Thank you for your885country's strength and for its desire for democracy, which all886people should yearn for.887    I yield back the balance of my time.888    Chairman Wicker: Thank you very much, Representative Cohen.889    Senator Boozman, I am going to give you a minute to collect890your thoughts here and recognize Mr. Jake Ellzey of Amarillo,891Texas. Representative Ellzey is a Navy veteran, fighter pilot,892and a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, and we welcome him to893the Commission.894    You are recognized for questions, sir.895896      STATEMENT OF JOHN BOOZMAN, U.S. SENATE, FROM ARIZONA897898    Senator Ellzey: Thank you, Senator. Appreciate being here.899It is actually the thrill of a lifetime, as I studied growing900up about the Helsinki Commission and the work that they do for901world peace. I am just privileged to be a part of this now with902so many friends, and to see you all here today.903    Vladimir Putin is not a president. He is a dictator, and he904is a czar. What we have to understand is these four dictators905that very much reflect what occurred in 1939 are now stronger906because of the invasion of Ukraine, not weaker. They have907gotten together on economic, industrial, and defense908cooperation, and that has increased amongst all four. If909anybody is deluding themselves into thinking this is about910Russia and the Baltics or Russia and the Nordics, it is not.911What troubles me about some of the discussions that we have in912the media, not here today, but the discussion, and I guess it913is the accepted term now, is hybrid warfare. Hybrid warfare is914one of those terms that really makes it antiseptic. It is as if915there are no victims, as if there is no damage, there is no916deaths, there is no destruction.917    We, in 1999, learned that the Chinese are using918unrestricted warfare in their aims for the South China Sea and919beyond. We need to call this for what it is, as it is920unrestricted warfare in all the ways that they are doing it, to921include killing people in foreign nations. That is an act of922war, so many ways that they are doing that. I think we should923start calling it unrestricted. I am pleased with what I am924seeing from NATO, the responses that we have had. From time to925time, we have kind of tried to find our way on this. I think we926need to continue to send the signal that we are going to send927permanent troops into Europe to defend them, because Vladimir928Putin is the orc. He is the ultimate orc, as a fan of ``Lord of929the Rings.''930    John 10:10 says the enemy kills, steals, and destroys. Tell931me what Russia builds, what they improve? They improve nothing.932They build nothing. They kill, steal, and destroy, and they are933probing the Baltics. They are probing the Nordics right now to934see if there is going to be a response, and till now--up until935now, there has been no cost for anything they have done. I am936proud to say that President Trump said, shoot them down, and I937am a proponent of that myself. Peter, I am going to ask you a938question, put you on the spot. In 1994, we had the Budapest939Memorandum, which said Russia is not going to invade, and we940would be there to protect Ukraine. Different president. In9411997, we had the Founding Act. Different president, different942czar in Russia. Can we just count those as not being in effect943anymore?944    Mr. Rough: First of all, Congressman, thank you for your945service and thank you for your leadership on national security946issues since the moment you entered Congress. It has been a947pleasure getting to know you and watching you at work.948    I think the NATO-Russia Founding Act is totally obsolete. I949do not think the United States should feel bound by it at all.950It has essentially been torn up by the Russians. If one reads951the language of the act, it has been totally violated by the952Russian Federation. I agree 100 percent that the Russians953understand strength, and strength alone. To connect it to954Chairman Wilson's remarks, you know, remember in 2015 in955November the Turks shot down a Sukhoi SU-24, and ever since,956the Russians have not violated Turkish airspace once.957    Now, we should not, I think, act brazenly. These are MiG-95831s that violated Estonian airspace, certified with dual-use959and nuclear-capable Kinzhal missiles. Nonetheless, at least960looking at rules of engagement, I think, is a way to flip that961cost-benefit calculus for the Russians and make them think962twice about violating airspace for 10 minutes, which is a level963of audacity that has to go challenged.964    Representative Ellzey: Thank you. When we talk about these965nations, the Baltics and the Nordics, we are talking about 10966million people total, 1.3 million people in Estonia. They are967not that big. They are--as they are in Taiwan and as they are968in Israel, they are surrounded by enemies that are only minutes969away. Do you have the capacity right now? Do you have970everything you need to defend yourself in case this incursion971comes again? Through Article Four, we have now said it is time972to knock one down.973    Mr. Tsahkna: First of all, the Nordic-Baltics economy974together belongs to the G-10 economies, and, actually, Nordic-975Baltics economies together exactly the same size as Russia. If976you are adding Poland, it is 150 percent of Russian economy.977Economically, we are very powerful. Now, if you are asking the978question about military capabilities, of course, we have our979own capabilities, but we are committed to NATO. Also, we have980agreed the NATO defense plans regionally, and they are good981plans, actually, since two years ago in Vilnius we agreed the982new defense plans. There are gaps we need to fulfill. That is983the reason why we are now increasing heavily the investments to984defense. Of course, we have capabilities to fight back. If we985are talking about a full-scale invasion from Russia, so we need986full NATO. We need, as well, the U.S. commitment there, and987that is why the NATO unity is most important.988    Thank you.989    Representative Ellzey: Senator, my time is up. It is an990honor to be sitting at this table with you and these other991distinguished members.992    Thank you.993    Chairman Wicker: Thank you very much.994    Now I recognize Representative Murphy of North Carolina. In995addition to being a representative, Dr. Murphy is a urologist996and has been a missionary in both India and Haiti. We welcome997you to the committee, Commission.998999   STATEMENT OF GREG MURPHY, U.S. HOUSE, FROM NORTH CAROLINA10001001    Representative Murphy: Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I1002appreciate it. As with Representative Ellzey, I am honored to1003be part of this group.1004    We sat together as a unified body, House and Senate, a few1005years ago, before this monstrosity ever occurred. We were with1006the armed forces chiefs of staff. We were with defense1007secretaries, and we sat, and we looked on the wall, and we saw1008how Ukraine was bordered by three sides by Russian troops, and1009we did nothing. We did not arm Ukraine. We did not want to,1010``poke the bear.'' I pray that if the same thing happens with1011the Baltics, we will have the fortitude that we do not wait for1012an action, that we prevent the action by arming the people, by1013coming up and not fighting a defensive war. It is so much that1014inaction led to a lot of action by Putin. I pray we do not make1015that same mistake again. I think a lot of the things that,1016sadly enough, occurred in Afghanistan have led to the debacle1017today, led to the loss of a million lives that should have1018never happened. If that ever happens, God forbid, I pray that1019who is ever in the administration to this point--to that point,1020prevents that from happening.1021    I will ask this. Is there any public campaign within1022Estonia now, or any of the Latvian states, that is anti-Putin?1023Is it all just fear of what is going to occur? Or is there any1024anti-Putin campaign?1025    Mr. Tsahkna: Thank you. Thank you for these remarks. First1026of all, I would like to commend the first part, is that we1027agreed in Vilnius two years ago the new NATO defense plans.1028They were exactly based on the experience what we see now in1029Ukraine. Of course, you can imagine that, for Estonia, Latvia,1030and Lithuania, we have a territorial depth, like 2001031kilometers. The idea before was that, of course, if Russia will1032be aggressive and invade NATO and the Baltic states, then1033finally, of course, NATO would win the war victoriously. The1034sad thing is that, taking back the territories, there will be1035no Estonians, no Latvians, no Lithuanians left. That is why we1036changed this strategy and also the plans. They are very good1037plans.1038    Russia must know as well. Then they know, of course, that1039if deterrence is not working--and I do hope that it will work.1040If it is not working in the future, we will be ready from the1041first second to hit into the heart of Russia and take down all1042the targets that are supporting this kind of aggression. This1043is exactly why we are now investing heavily to our defense1044capabilities regionally, but of course, together with NATO and1045also with allies as U.S., so this is the understanding.1046    Why I am talking about this is that actually, people of1047Estonia, we are not afraid of Russia. We do not fear. We have1048no fear. We have been living there 10,000 years, and we have1049planned to continue for the same long time. We just know what1050may come. This is a big difference. If you know what may come,1051then you are not afraid. You are just preparing for that. We1052are very practical. That is why we decided in the beginning of10531991, after regaining our independence, two things.1054    First, we fight back this time. We did not do it in 19401055and 1939. The second, that we never be alone again, because at1056this time we declare that we are neutral, peace-loving country.1057Actually, Stalin and Hitler did not, you know, care about that,1058so we did not fight back, and we were alone. We wanted to get1059good relations with Moscow, with Berlin, with Paris, London,1060and Washington at this time. Now we made our choice, never be1061alone again, and we definitely fight back, and Russia should1062know that. Whatever it costs, and it is not based on fear.1063    Thank you.1064    Representative Murphy: Thank you.1065    Mr. Rough, let me ask a question. You know, getting into1066the mind of Putin, getting into the mind of Stalin, the other1067despots that we have seen in the world, how do you change that1068man's mind? Because I would submit that while many criticize1069the president for trying to do what he did, he tried to give1070him an out. I do not know. That is not my understanding. I1071would just love to know, how do we give Putin an out to back1072out, because he is seemingly, not going to do it on its own.1073Interested in your thoughts.1074    Mr. Rough: There was a wonderful description of Putin in1075the early days after the full-scale invasion, reported in, I1076think it was, The Financial Times, where a reporter asked a1077senior Kremlin source close to the president who President1078Putin was relying on to go to war, who he was listening to. He1079said he had two primary advisors, Ivan the Terrible and1080Catherine the Great. There is, I think, an imperial quality to1081President Putin. We have seen it on display in the now-famous/1082infamous interview he did with Tucker Carlson, where he went1083off on a long historical soliloquy. The reports out of the1084meeting in Alaska are similar, where apparently President Putin1085began with a lengthy historical excursion, talking about1086Yaroslav the Wise and other figures of Russian imperial past.1087There is sort of a grandiloquence, a sense of historical1088boasting that is, I think, at the core of Putin.1089    Beyond that kind of ideological tenor, I do think he1090responds to basic cost-benefit analysis, and if the pain and1091suffering imposed on the Russian people is sufficient to1092threaten the political foundations of his rule, he may be1093forced to reconsider and come to the table. I think both the1094PURL system of weapons support financed by the Europeans to1095Ukraine and the recently announced Rosneft and Lukoil1096sanctions, which take effect on the 21st of this month--so just1097in a few days--are both the military and economic prongs of an1098attempt to change the Russian calculus.1099    Because to date, the president has sought to engage1100President Putin and President Zelensky. He has sought to act as1101a mediator, bending in his kind of neutrality in the mediation1102toward the Ukrainians, but nonetheless to mediate. Since I1103think he has been frustrated by Russian obstruction, by Russian1104inflexibility, he is now trying to change the calculations of1105the Russians by applying some pressure.1106    We will see--as President Trump put it when President1107Putin--or maybe it was Lavrov, the Kremlin spokesperson--1108scoffed at the sanctions announcement, we will see if he is1109still laughing in six months.1110    Representative Murphy: Thank you.1111    I will yield back.1112    Chairman Wicker: Senator Boozman can also be called Dr.1113Boozman. He is not only a foreign policy expert, having1114actually lived in Europe for a time when his father was1115assigned over there, but also he is in charge of agriculture1116policy over on this side of the Capitol, and he is mighty busy.1117John, we appreciate you showing up today and lending your1118expertise to this important subject.1119    Senator John Boozman?1120    Senator Boozman: Well, thank you so much, and it is so good1121to be with you all and to have such a distinguished panel to1122come and tell us what we need to be doing, and I thought it was1123interesting, the--I think we all know that the airspace1124incursions are a method of destabilizing our countries and1125collecting intelligence. The list goes on and on.1126    Congressman Ellzey suggested that we shoot them down.1127President Trump has. I think if you polled the panel here, you1128would probably find a bunch of people that would be in that1129camp. The reality is, besides doing that, you have all the1130other stuff that is going on--the cyber war that is taking1131place, the disrupting our elections, arsons, assassinations.1132You know, the list goes on and on.1133    If you do, you know, take out one, you still have the1134others to deal with. You mentioned sanctions, and I guess what1135I am asking is, what do we feel like is the best, most1136comprehensive way to deal with this? How do you make it such1137that the Russians actually feel, you know, a response from a1138unified West that actually does help them--help us hurt them?1139    Mr. Tsahkna: Thank you.1140    First of all, I would like to thank Senator Boozman. I was1141two years ago in Arkansas, and this is a good example that we1142actually bought the HIMARS systems from Arkansas.1143    Senator Boozman: Yes, canned in Arkansas.1144    Mr. Tsahkna: Also this is a good example how the Baltic1145Security Initiative added, as well value from Estonia, is going1146back to U.S. industry, and now these HIMARSes are working well1147in Estonia already. Thank you for that cooperation.1148    Yes, what we need to do, we need to do what we need to do.1149It means as well what we--we need to increase our capabilities.1150We need to actually be committed to our plans. First of all,1151invest money in military capabilities.1152    The problem is aggressor. The problem is Putin, and the1153only way out is peace through strength. It means as well1154increasing heavily the pressure on Russia. We have already put1155on the 19 packages of sanctions from European Union side. The1156twentieth is already preparing.1157    We are ready, very close to make a decision to use the1158Russian frozen assets. We are talking about more than 2001159billion euros, which is frozen in Europe, and Estonia has been1160pushing this process already close to three years. Now we see1161the political willingness to do it in Europe.1162    I do hope that it will happen in December. As well, the1163European Union has leverage and opportunity to put tariffs on1164exports from Russia and Belorussia to Europe, mainly about1165energy, which does not need consensus.1166    You know, probably our complexity about European Union,1167about sanctions, we need consensus, 27 countries. About tariffs1168we need the qualified majority and it is proposed by European1169Commission. It will hit heavily.1170    As well we are very much welcoming President Trump's1171decisions on putting sanctions onto the largest energy1172companies as well the secondary sanctions. I do hope that the1173Senate will and also Congress will support these sanctions1174regime--the secondary sanctions--mainly because they are1175hitting these countries and governments which are dealing with1176Russia.1177    I was in a visit to China just last week. It was very1178interesting. Of course, I probably could not change the global1179foreign policy goals of China. That was very clear as well, and1180I asked the question that China is the main enabler for Russia1181to wage the war. Main economical supporter but as well we are1182talking about at least the dual-use technologies which have1183been given to Russia.1184    What we need to do together with U.S. and so on, together1185with Europe, is to improve and also to increase the pressure to1186China to buy less gas and oil from Russia because Putin's and1187Russian economy are not doing well. They are not doing well.1188    As well, Russia has not had any kind of strategic1189breakthrough on the battlefield in Ukraine. Whatever Putin1190wants to tell, instead of six days of special operation, he is1191waging more than three years of full-scale war without any1192strategic breakthrough.1193    That is why we need to act to support Ukraine, but at the1194same time put more pressure on Russia. This is the only way,1195and I hope that we are going together on that direction.1196    Thank you.1197    Senator Boozman: Mr. Jones?1198    Mr. Jones: Just to add, on the Russian challenges it is not1199just that the Russians surpassed a million casualties over the1200course of the summer, which is extraordinary. It is not just1201that the Russians--the average rate of advance is slower than1202during the Somme during World War I. It is also that if you1203start the Soviet campaign at Operation Barbarossa when the1204Germans invaded and you fast forward three years and nine1205months, they were in Berlin.1206    Today, if you fast forward that same amount of time from1207the beginning of the full-scale invasion they are in Pokrovsk.1208It is a shell of the Soviet Union.1209    I would add that the Russians are vulnerable on the economy1210and I think that is an area where--that we can exploit. I agree1211they are grappling with inflation, labor shortages, brain1212drain. I think increased sanctions would be very difficult for1213President Putin.1214    I also think, and I would just add one other area, is a1215much more targeted effort at identifying and then trying to1216shut down elements of a shadow fleet, including sanctions1217against some of the flag vessels that are illegally shipping1218Russian oil and gas.1219    There are other elements of that, including listing and1220sanctioning insurers that are providing insurance to the shadow1221fleet ecosystem. Sanctions and I think a couple of other steps,1222including the shadow fleet, will start to put a dent in the1223Russian economy, which is not doing anywhere near as well as1224Vladimir Putin would hope and certainly not as well as he is1225telling his own population.1226    Chairman Wicker: Thank you. Further questions, Senator1227Boozman?1228    Senator Boozman: Do you want to--1229    Mr. Rough: Sure. I am happy to add to that.1230    I would just say that there are, I think, symmetrical1231responses available to the United States and to NATO when it1232comes to cyber aggression. President Trump has shown in 2018 by1233shutting down the--reportedly, the Internet Research Agency in1234St. Petersburg that we can punch back in that domain. Maybe it1235is time for the lights to go off in the Moscow metro for a1236warning, for them to get the message that they cannot undertake1237similar attacks in the West.1238    Maybe it is time to facilitate, encourage, support1239Ukrainian special operations against Russian positions in1240Africa if they sabotage us in Europe. Maybe it is time to dial1241up the sanctions in certain areas to essentially fund or pay1242for or force the Russians to feel the pain from their own1243critical infrastructure attacks in the Baltic Sea.1244    I would add on the economic sanctions front, while I am not1245an economic determinist--I am not a Marxist--I do think that1246the pain is real. On Friday, the Russian statistical agency1247reported essentially stagnant growth, 0.6 percent GDP growth in1248the third quarter over a year ago.1249    Their inflation has decreased a little bit, still hovering1250around 8 percent, and I think on October 24, the last rate cut1251was to 16.5 percent in the key base rate in the Russian system,1252which makes borrowing costs incredibly painful for Russian1253businesses. Inflation's a problem. Economic growth is stagnant.1254High borrowing costs.1255    Now there is talk, according to the Russian finance1256ministry, of a VAT [Value Added Tax] increase from 20 [percent]1257to 22 percent next year, which shows that the National Wealth1258Fund is beginning--the liquid portion is beginning to run dry,1259and they have a big budget deficit that is yawning and on the1260horizon.1261    I think the Rosneft and Lukoil sanctions, which takes about1262half of Russian crude oil production into attack, will begin to1263really shape at the end of this week and beyond. Already, just1264to take one example where this has positive follow-on effects1265for the United States, the port of Burgas in Bulgaria, which1266processes about 140,000 barrels of crude oil per day, is now1267being taken in receivership by the Bulgarian government. It is1268a Lukoil asset.1269    Instead, the U.S. is forging through the 3+1 ministerial. I1270think just this week in Athens a new vertical corridor energy1271partnership where American LNG [Liquefied Natural Gas] from1272Athens through Bulgaria up through Romania, Moldova, can go to1273Ukraine to help deal with some of their natural gas shortages.1274    We are pushing out in some respects the Russians' energy1275dominance of this part of the world, and we will be able to1276replace it, I think, with the U.S. system, and that is in our1277national interest.1278    Senator Boozman: Good.1279    Thank you, Mr. Chairman.1280    Chairman Wicker: We will take another round if you1281gentlemen can stay with us.1282    To what extent does the average person in Moscow or St.1283Petersburg--the population centers--hear our point of view?1284What are their sources? We have testimony that the economy is1285in the tank, and people realize the economy is bad there.1286    To what extent do they blame the war and Putin for getting1287us--getting them into the war? Then if you--if anybody would1288also like to talk about the legislation that would sanction1289Russia in terms of actually being an international terrorist1290nation because of the abduction of children.1291    Who would like to start first? Mr. Tsahkna? Yes. Tsahkna.1292    Mr. Tsahkna: Tsahkna. Yes. This is--it took a couple of1293years in Estonia to study my language and my family, and thank1294you.1295    We do not know in adequate ways what Russian people are1296thinking because it is not even the question about the surveys,1297which is pretty impossible to make in Russia, in Moscow and St.1298Petersburg. People are under constant terror, and they are not1299able to answer the questions in honest ways.1300    We are talking about the society which is living under1301constant terror, and if you think about that Russian war1302against Ukraine is a bad thing, there will be punishments.1303People are sitting in prison. It is hard to say what Russian1304people are thinking in scientific ways but it is as a1305consequence of a terror regime.1306    The second point is that we have declared as Estonia that1307Russia is a terroristic country, and also for us no problem to1308follow the legislation as well, based on these criteria so and1309as well accountability is at the same time a very important1310topic.1311    We are talking mainly about what is happening on the1312battlefield and what is happening with territories but as well1313under the Council of Europe, we have called the initiative,1314which is the special tribunal about the aggression crimes of1315Russia, and this tribunal must be put in force and Estonia will1316join one of the first countries with this.1317    We sent this legislation already to our Estonia parliament1318to join that. It was exactly--the last time we did something1319like this in the world was Nuremberg special tribunal about the1320Nazi crimes.1321    Unfortunately, communistic crimes have never had this kind1322of tribunal, and this is actually, I think, one of the core1323reasons why Russia continuously repeatingly violating1324everything and acting as an imperialistic nation because this1325kind of tribunal has never happened from the past, and now is1326the time to commit that.1327    Thank you.1328    Chairman Wicker: Mr. Jones?1329    Mr. Jones: Every week, every month, and certainly every1330year since the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the1331Russian State has become even more authoritarian, even more1332concerned about stability, and even more concerned about the1333views of its population.1334    No, I think the answer is clear. Russian citizens do not1335have access to information. It is a state-controlled media,1336state-controlled internet. I do not think, in general, the1337population understands what has gone on. I do not think there1338is a general sense of the sheer casualties that the Russian1339State has--that Russian soldiers have suffered.1340    Chairman Wicker: Let me interrupt you there.1341    President Zelensky, in a conversation that I was part of1342just a few days ago, said there were over 50,000 Russian1343fatalities in the month of September this year. Not just--not1344casualties, but 50,000 fatalities in their military force.1345Surely that word is getting back to the mothers and fathers and1346husbands and wives.1347    Mr. Jones: Well, I think, Mr. Chairman, one of the1348challenges has been that most of the individuals recruited into1349the Russian military have not been serving--they have not been1350the sons, certainly not the daughters, but not the sons of1351politically important people in Moscow or St. Petersburg.1352    They are from Central Asia or Siberia or other locations1353and, clearly, Vladimir Putin does not care about casualties1354from huge chunks of his population.1355    Chairman Wicker: Does public opinion matter in Russia?1356    Mr. Jones: I think as long as there is a significant1357element of fear among the population, people are not going to1358rise up against the government that Vladimir Putin has right1359now, and there is tremendous fear right now.1360    Chairman Wicker: Well, I did interrupt your train of1361thought there. If you would like to complete your statement I1362would be happy to do that with you.1363    Mr. Jones: No, just that the Russian State under Vladimir1364Putin, since the war--the full-scale war began--it was already1365going in this direction anyway--has become increasingly1366repressive. His population is not getting accurate information1367about the State of the war. They continue to blame NATO for A,1368how it started, and B, NATO assistance, and that--I think that1369is an interesting question about whether we have effectively1370penetrated Russian news media.1371    I will just remind everyone that it was President Reagan,1372for example, in Poland during the cold war that authorized an1373incredible program to provide assistance to Poles and support1374solidarity. Are we doing the same right now?1375    Chairman Wicker: Mr. Rough?1376    Mr. Rough: I would just note that in the 2010's President1377Putin built up a pretty significant domestic repression1378apparatus after Russians took to the streets following a1379questionable Presidential election. I think that very effective1380repressive mechanism mingles with a certain apathy of1381Muscovites who look at, as Seth Jones put it, sort of1382Dagestanis dying in Ukraine and think to themselves. Long as it1383does not affect me and my immediate kin I am okay with this.1384    I do not detect the same sort of churn, the writhing and1385chafing that we saw in Berlin in 1953, Budapest 1956, Prague13861968, right now in Russia. I do think, though, that the--1387returning to the United States, the issue of the abducted1388children, which is just a horrific and cruel and terrible act1389of aggression against the Ukrainian peoples, has seized the1390attention of a lot of Americans, and when advocates for the1391Ukrainian cause tend to travel outside of the Beltway and speak1392about this many Americans that are unaware of it are really1393gripped by it.1394    To connect to your opening question, Senator, about what1395does someone in Corinth, Mississippi, care about what happens1396in Ukraine. I think this really does offend the conscience of1397Americans even if Ukraine is considered a place far away, not1398to mention that they are backed by some of the most odious1399dictatorships in the world. Whether it be the People's Republic1400of China, the autarkic, essentially, concentration camp that is1401modern-day North Korea, and then the Islamic Republic of Iran.1402    From the First Lady down to the average American, this is1403an issue that I think has gripped them, and it is an1404opportunity to demonstrate the stakes for the American public.1405    Chairman Wicker: It is my understanding that Pope Leo will1406be addressing this issue in Rome within a matter of days.1407    Mr. Rough: That would not surprise me, Senator. If I could1408just add one more point.1409    I think the threat to Putin comes not from sort of the1410cosmopolitan artist class of St. Petersburg but really from his1411hardened fascist right flank, which will argue you were correct1412to go to war, Mr. President, but you have been weak in how you1413have executed it because it has been such a bungling effort for1414the Russian armed forces.1415    To the extent that there is opposition, we see some of it1416in these social media Telegram channels where there has been1417criticism of the leadership.1418    Chairman Wicker: To what extent do we need to be worried1419about what is happening in Pokrovsk?1420    Mr. Rough: I think the situation in Pokrovsk is difficult1421if not dire. I think it is very important that the Ukrainians1422learn the lessons of Bakhmut and Avdiivka and ensure that their1423personnel is able to leave pockets that seem to be, according1424to the public reporting, an open source intelligence closing.1425    I would note that the Pokrovsk is not the final gate of1426protecting Ukraine proper. There are other very important1427fortified cities as part of this fortress belt that Ukraine's1428established in Donetsk, and so it is one very important battle.1429I think it matters as much at the political sort of symbolic1430level as it does at the actual military tactical level, and for1431that reason it is garnered a lot of attention. I would not say1432it is determinative.1433    Chairman Wicker: Mr. Wilson?1434    Co-Chairman Wilson: Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman.1435    Indeed, thank all of you for being here today, and, indeed,1436Foreign Minister, I think you are so correct to hear the1437resolve of the people of Estonia to resist whatever may occur,1438and it is ironic that we are here with the Helsinki Commission.1439Okay.1440    We can think back to the Finnish population, the bravery of1441the Winter War of 1939. A tiny little former Russian province1442comes back and defeats and resists the Soviet Union1443successfully.1444    Then as we were talking about the resolve of NATO, I cannot1445believe I forgot to point out the ultimate resolve, and that is1446now Finland is a member of NATO. Now, Sweden is a member of1447NATO. Who would ever imagine? Two hundred years of neutrality.1448    I think they were inspired, too, by the Baltic republic so1449working together. I am just so encouraged of what can be done.1450Putting that together too, what more can we do to advance the1451capabilities of our Baltic allies in terms of technology, such1452as drone technology and counter-drone technology?1453    Mr. Tsahkna: Thank you.1454    Really, the Winter War you mentioned that Finnish people1455fought, actually this is something we as Estonians are1456following, and also this is our mistake that our democracy did1457not work so well in 1939. It worked better in Finland because1458Finnish people had an opportunity to decide, and then they1459started to fight back.1460    Estonians, I think, we are ready. We were ready at the1461time, but finally there was an agreement and then it was too1462late. Also, we fought our freedom in 1918 to 1920, and we1463were--we were actually victorious against Soviet Russia at this1464time.1465    What we can do, of course, the understanding that we are1466doing our part, but U.S. presence militarily in our region is1467very important, and this decision has been made right now that1468U.S. troops will remain in the Baltic states and Poland. Any1469message that U.S. is withdrawing troops from Europe is a bad1470thing because Russia definitely will use it.1471    I am not talking only about the military capabilities but I1472am talking as well the messages, the messages to our people, to1473European people, because Russia and Putin will definitely use1474that as a sign that U.S. is weak and withdrawing the troops1475because of them, because of Putin, and this is a very, very1476wrong way to go.1477    As well, on a practical level, it is very important, and I1478am grateful for the Congress support for the Baltic Security1479Initiative, as I mentioned before. These are practical things,1480but as well to understand the main principle that aggressive1481Russia is not a problem for Ukraine only. Aggressive Russia is1482a problem for all of us, and we are ready to do our part. We1483are ready to stand there. We are ready to--as well to support1484Ukraine, and also what is the clear thing is about security1485guarantees for the future if the just and lasting peace will1486come.1487    We in Europe must understand, and I think that we are1488ready, that we must put the skin in the game to secure Ukraine,1489to give the relevant security guarantees, not the guarantees1490which are written on paper and which are not costing anything1491in the near future, as it happened with the Minsk agreements.1492    Of course, the Estonian position is clear that we cannot1493take down the opportunity for Ukraine in the future to join1494NATO because this is the most efficient security guarantee. As1495well, we, as--we, as a bordering country of Russia, may be a1496good example that if the coalition of the willing will go and1497decide together with Ukraine that security guarantees needs1498boots on the ground--we decided this March as Estonian1499government we will be part and participate in boots-on-the-1500ground military capabilities, even we are the member--1501neighboring country of Russia, if there is need for that.1502Because if we give the solid security guarantees for Ukraine,1503then these guarantees are for Europe as well.1504    Thank you.1505    Co-Chairman Wilson: Thank you.1506    Indeed, Director Rough, I appreciate you bringing up about1507Burgas. That is--I want to know more about that. You also1508identified, indeed, the political composition, sadly, of the1509Russian Federation is fascism. It is fascism with a combination1510of mafia.1511    As I told you, I had wonderful visits to Russia, and it is1512just heartbreaking to me to see a country that could have had1513such opportunity now have an economy smaller than Italy, and1514then to find out it is smaller than the Baltic republics and1515Poland together.1516    Over and over again, what could be a great country. Putting1517that in mind, there is also good news, and that is about Burgas1518and then, indeed, the incredible opportunities that President1519Trump has achieved for the Black Sea region and Caucasus with1520Azerbaijan and Armenia. A tragedy, truly, is the rigged1521elections in the Republic of Georgia.1522    What do you recommend that can be done with the Georgian1523Dream dictatorship, which is now working very closely with the1524Chinese Communist Party to give away the only Black Sea port1525that Georgia has to the Chinese Communist Party, which1526facilitates their ability to impact the importation of rare1527earths and the liberation and economic progress of Central1528Asia?1529    Chairman Wicker: We are told that the minister has to leave1530in about five minutes, and we want to be--1531    Co-Chairman Wilson: Hear, hear.1532    Chairman Wicker: --mindful of his time.1533    But thank you, Representative Wilson, for mentioning the1534steadfast, brave people of the Republic of Georgia who have1535stood out in the cold and in the summer heat for one full year1536protesting the illegal and rigged election, which has been1537recognized as such by the European Union and by a number of1538Americans.1539    Who would like to respond about that particular issue?1540    Mr. Tsahkna: About Georgia?1541    Chairman Wicker: Yes.1542    Mr. Tsahkna: I was in Georgia just a year ago or a bit1543more, and I was there together with the Baltic foreign1544ministers and Iceland foreign minister at this time. It was1545before the elections happened.1546    I saw as well, Mr. Chairman, the great willingness of1547Georgian people, and they believed at this time that actually1548the leadership is keeping the promises about the integration to1549the Western part of the world and European Union and so on.1550    It was heavily violated. Also we are very close to Georgian1551people. We have been very supportive all the decades about1552reforms, and what we see now I do not call this government a1553government, but this is a regime which is not following the1554Georgian people will.1555    What we see now is the beginning of the same developments1556what we saw years ago in Belorussia. This is a very dangerous1557thing. This is a very dangerous thing, and I--the Estonian1558people, I can say to you, will--continue to support and1559Georgian people's will for freedom.1560    Thank you.1561    Chairman Wicker: Mr. Cohen says he can limit his remarks to1562two minutes. Can you stay that long?1563    Mr. Tsahkna: I will stay.1564    Representative Cohen: Thank you, sir. Just a little history1565lesson, if you do not mind, Mr. Minister. I believe you said1566something--1567    Mr. Tsahkna: We have time.1568    Representative Cohen: I believe you said something about1569Russia taking all the children in Estonia during the 1939-19401570period. Is that accurate? Did I hear that right?1571    Mr. Tsahkna: I was talking about Ukraine children.1572    Representative Cohen: Okay. Well, I know about Ukraine1573children. I misunderstood you then.1574    Mr. Tsahkna: Okay.1575    Representative Cohen: I thought you said they took--the1576population in Estonia was not as great because they took all1577the kids.1578    Mr. Tsahkna: No, no. The problem was that at the end of15791930's our parliament ran out of these democratic rules, and we1580had a very good president at the time who wanted the best for1581the Nation. We had no democratic system as it was in Finland to1582respond to these proposals, so-called, from Russian side--1583Soviet side. The Finnish people decided to fight, and Estonian1584people, we had no democratic system.1585    Representative Cohen: I got you. I just misunderstood what1586you said, and I wanted to clarify.1587    Thank you very much.1588    Mr. Tsahkna: Thank you.1589    Representative Cohen: I appreciate you.1590    Chairman Wicker: We are going to conclude the hearing. We1591want to very much thank our witnesses, particularly you, Mr.1592Minister, and the representatives, also of the think tanks that1593we rely so much on hearing the ground truth.1594    Also, thank you to our audience who have been very patient1595and attentive and have filled this room with supporters of what1596you believe in, Mr. Minister, and I can assure you that the1597words that have been spoken today by our three witnesses will1598reverberate around Europe and be heard worldwide.1599    Thank you very much, and with that, we conclude the1600hearing.1601    [Whereupon, at 5:06 p.m., the hearing ended.]16021603                                 [all]16041605[GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT]16061607         The United States Helsinki Commission, an independent1608       federal agency, by law monitors and encourages progress in1609            implementing provisions of the Helsinki Accords.16101611          The Commission, Created in 1976, is composed of nine1612     Senators, nine Representatives and one official each from the1613              Department of State, Defense, and Commerce.16141615         All Commission publications may be freely reproduced,1616          in any form, with appropriate credit. The Commission1617   encourages the widest possible dissemination of its publications.16181619                              WWW.CSCE.GOV16201621                     youtube.com/HelsinkiCommission16221623                    facebook.com/helsinkicommission16241625                  flickr.com/photos/helsinkicommission16261627                           x.com/HelsinkiComm